Statistics II20775 marksNumerical: Markov chain forecastingMarkov Process
Every day is generally considered as either sunny or rainy. A sunny day is followed by another sunny day with probability 0.8 whereas a rainy day is followed by a sunny day with probability 0.4. Suppose it rains on Monday. Make forecasts for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Every day is generally considered as either sunny or rainy. A sunny day is followed by another sunny day with probability 0.8 whereas a rainy day is followed by a sunny day with probability 0.4. Suppose it rains on Monday. Make forecasts for Tuesday and Wednesday. [5]
Given data: - States: Sunny (S), Rainy (R) - P(Sunny Sunny) = 0.8, therefore P(Rainy Sunny) = 0.2 - P(Sunny Rainy) = 0.4, therefore P(Rainy Rainy) = 0.6 - Initial condition: it rains on Monday, so P(Rainy on Monday) = 1 - Required: forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday All required data is present. ...